The South African political terrain has changed dramatically following the recent 29 May 2024 elections. No longer is the ANC able to form a majority government. It will probably settle, as a matter of convenience, for a government of national unity (GNU). A coalition government will be a tougher task. Forming a GNU and involving other parties seems altruistic. But this strategy is informed by the ANC sense of “control” which it really does not have.
Notwithstanding, it will continue to play this power position if other parties, who could render it an opposition party, cannot collaborate without it. In fact, any collaboration excluding the ANC is far-fetched because it would require a left-right inclusion of the EFF and the DA. That combination is water and oil- the twixt shall never meet. In reality, the DA and ANC are much closer than the DA and the EFF. This gives the ANC an easy copout for the GNU to ensure that it does not take full responsibility for the mess it has created for itself and the black masses who have religiously voted it to govern.
Rationally, it seems sensible to those persuaded by the business-friendly disposition of the ANC, that the ANC should enter a coalition with the DA. However, the ANC’s history and its social democratic ideology does not align easily with the free market leanings of the DA. However, their logic is that the DA would police the ANC from its corrupt tendencies, cadre deployment, BEE, affirmative action and other such persuasions that the DA firmly opposes. Invariably the DA would make the ANC weak and such alliance would precipitate more division within the ANC.
Probably the black majority wanted to punish the ANC but did not intend delivering it to the DA. So, for the black masses, a coalition of black political parties would provide a greater sense of confidence in continuing to pursue the social democratic agenda. It would also pay better political returns to the ANC in the short and long term. Although such a coalition would be difficult to engineer it would still be a better route. The black majority would not share power with the DA and the social democratic black agenda would presumably stay on course. This is but one of the few options for the ANC.
For this to happen, it is imperative that the ANC humbles itself and win, one by one, the black leading parties, the EFF, the MKP and any other black party, like the Patriotic Alliance, to make a majority coalition government. Unstable as that may be, it will pay dividends because, once the leaders overcome their personal agendas, the parties may find common ground in resuscitating a cohesive and shared social democratic agenda and neutralise the DA.
The difficulty in forming this coalition has historical roots, perceived ideological differences of no significance, distrust and individual hatred among the leaders. Individual leaders of these parties have transposed personal and leadership agendas on the party agendas. These artificial differences are not about national interests but about leaders settling scores and, in some cases, protecting themselves from prosecution. In essence it is blackmail. For example, for the coalition to emerge it would be ideal for them to stay prosecutions by the NPA – Zuma for his corruption charges, Malema for his VBS debacles and Cyril for his Phalaphala and others for their dishonourable and possibly criminal conduct as exposed in the Zondo Sate Capture Commission Report.
Thus, the approach by these parties to a coalition has been not proactive. Instead, they have set ridiculous pre-conditions to the ANC. This is also why the ANC thinks it is in charge. Were these other parties even to get together on their own and present something cohesive to the ANC, this could make for a sensible proactive approach to this quagmire.
Granted, none of the other black political parties are going to give the ANC any relief. They are going to extract as much trade capital as possible to force the ANC’s hand. Their currency is time and disruption – kicking for time, lodging disputes on vote counting, as well as threatening lawlessness as they have lesser or nothing to lose. All this is designed to get the ANC to panic and extract as much advantage as possible. But, in the end, they will also pay some price if they do not do what is right. The DA on the other hand, is also feeding off the same game strategy with even less also lose as a white minority party suddenly thrust onto the big stage.
So where do we go from here? The ANC must send reliable and neutral emissaries to the other black political parties to facilitate these negotiations. The same was done to entice the ANC to the negotiating table. Unfortunately, the ANC has no luxury of time. These three parties must get together for the reasons of preserving the post-apartheid black agenda. They must swallow their own individual leaders’ prides and look for the interests of their majority population even if it includes trading something about how they will deal with the Zondo Report and other related matters – this is at the core of this quagmire. The white business leadership has already protected both the construction, banking and financial services industries for their corruption and paid off little fines at the competition commission. So, in some way, pragmatic trading will be no different for these leaders. That is the only way to get the black social democratic agenda on track again with the constitutional time constraints to form a government.
This may be seemingly impossible as was CODESA at one point. A lot of trade-offs were made there including conceiving the Truth and Reconciliation Commission which pardoned brutal apartheid criminals and protected liberation movements. But this can only be easier if the hearts of black political leaders could be in the interests of the defence of gains, however little, that were made in the last 30 years and to avoid any regression that the DA could bring.
